While Sam Hinkie put talent above all else, Atlanta GM Travis Schlenk has prioritized fit as he tries to build a contender from the ground up. To date, the outcomes have been grim. Will the franchise see out the daring rebuild? Or will it seek a shortcut on the commerce deadline?
The Hawks have a franchise participant and not a lot else. Trae Younger, who presently leads All-Star fan voting amongst East guards, has turn into a star in his second season within the NBA. But his group has not stored tempo. Atlanta has the worst document (Eight-32) and internet score (minus-9.6) within the league.
Basic manager Travis Schlenk is within the third season of his personal version of the Process. He blew up the staff that he inherited and stripped it down for elements, putting together an fascinating young core with no long-term monetary commitments—and little capacity to compete on some nights.
But there's one key distinction between Schlenk and Sam Hinkie, his quasi-predecessor in Philadelphia. Hinkie drafted as if the chances have been towards him; he was in search of stars and worrying about fit later. Schlenk, who comes from a more traditional scouting background with the Warriors, has taken the other strategy. He drafts like someone who believes he can beat the chances, selecting prospects based on how their skill-sets complement each other as an alternative of their theoretical upside. His aim has been to assemble a cohesive group better than the sum of its elements, even if it means passing on gamers with extra talent in a vacuum. The question is how much longer he'll get to execute his plan if it doesn’t begin displaying progress.
The decision that may outline his tenure came in final season’s draft. Schlenk might have stayed put at no. Three general and chosen Luka Doncic. It was the apparent decide. But he rolled the dice, trading down with Dallas to no. 5 to take Younger and purchase their lottery decide in this season’s draft, which turned Cam Reddish. The 2 teams have gone in opposite directions because the deal. Doncic is a reliable MVP contender and the Mavs are a close to lock for the playoffs.
Younger has not been the difficulty for the Hawks. He’s been great in his own right. He’s averaging historic numbers (28.9 factors on 44.3 % capturing and 8.4 assists per recreation) for a participant of any age, a lot less a 21-year-old. The record of players to succeed in these marks features some of the greatest guards in NBA history, including Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, and James Harden. But players earn respect in the NBA once they rack up wins, not gaudy stat strains.
It’s unfair to match anybody to Luka. He’s a generational expertise, a 6-foot-7 point ahead who was the perfect participant in Europe as an adolescent. Young, like the vast majority of gamers his age, can’t carry a workforce by himself. He needs to be in the best context to succeed. He’s one of the smallest (6-foot-1 and 180 kilos) and least athletic players within the NBA, and he’s terrible defensively. Schlenk has been laser-focused on finding different younger players who can complement him on each ends of the ground. The hope shouldn't be that Young can be better than Doncic. It’s that growing a younger workforce around him as an alternative of adding veterans just like the Mavs have achieved will put the Hawks in a greater state of affairs when both gamers are near their prime.
The second most essential piece of the puzzle in Atlanta is third-year massive man John Collins. He missed 25 video games while serving a PED suspension, effectively ending the Hawks’ season before it ever began. They have been 2-Three when his suspension started in early November, and 6-24 by the time he returned proper earlier than Christmas.
The pick-and-roll between Young and Collins is the inspiration of Atlanta’s offense. Collins, at 6-foot-9 and 235 kilos, is an elite athlete who can finish at the rim and common a double-double in his sleep. But probably the most encouraging thing about him is that he keeps adding dimensions to his recreation. It’s not simply the factors (17 per recreation on 49 % capturing) and rebounds (9.7) anymore. He’s posting career highs in Three-point makes an attempt (33.Three % on 4.1 per recreation) and blocks (2.1).
Collins has also taken an enormous step ahead on the defensive end. The Hawks’ defensive score goes from 113.8 in 1,508 minutes with out him (which would rank no. 28 in the league over the course of the entire season) to 105.9 in 427 minutes with him (which might be no. 8). They have held their own when Collins has played as a small-ball 5, with a defensive score of 107.8 in 184 minutes.
But his return has executed solely a lot for Atlanta. The Hawks are still just 2-8 in games when each Young and Collins have played this season. They need extra from the other three young cornerstones that Schlenk has drafted in the first round: Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, and Cam Reddish.
Huerter, the no. 19 decide in the 2018 draft, has not made the same leap as his classmate Young. He has been slowed by a shoulder damage that stored him out for 11 video games and has struggled at occasions to get into a rhythm enjoying next to such a ball-dominant guard. Huerter is an fascinating prospect, with great measurement (6-foot-7 and 190 pounds) and a more numerous offensive recreation than most knockdown outdoors shooters. However Atlanta wants him to average greater than 11.2 points on 41.6 % capturing and 3.4 assists per recreation. The workforce is relying on Huerter to develop into a constant third scorer and secondary playmaker who can hold everyone concerned in the offense.
Neither Hunter (no. four general in last yr’s draft) nor Reddish (no. 10) has accomplished much of their rookie seasons. My colleague Zach Kram ran their numbers via a statistical mannequin on Monday and came up with an ugly list of comparable players, together with lottery busts like Ben McLemore, Stanley Johnson, and Wesley Johnson. Hunter and Reddish are displaying constructive indicators on defense, but their offense has been tough. Hunter is averaging 11.9 factors per recreation on 40 % capturing whereas Reddish is averaging 8.Three points per recreation on 32.5 % capturing.
Their offensive points have been well-known popping out of school. The Hawks hoped that Younger would create straightforward seems to be for them while they coated for him on defense. All of it is sensible on paper. Younger and Collins are the high-usage offensive stars, and Hunter and Reddish are the defensive-minded position players, with Huerter someplace in the center. The parallels to Schlenk’s earlier stint in Golden State, when he helped construct a younger staff around elite outdoors shooters, long and athletic wings, and a small-ball massive man, are inescapable. The plan has worked in the uncommon occasions this season when all 5 members of Atlanta’s younger core have been obtainable. They have a internet score of plus-25.1 in 37 minutes collectively this season.
The draw back of constructing such an interconnected staff is that removing one piece causes the whole thing to disintegrate. The Hawks are coming off an unsightly defeat on Sunday, a 108-86 loss to the Nets in Kyrie Irving’s first recreation back. Young was out with a hamstring damage and none of their other kids might decide up the slack. They all want Younger to set the desk for them. There isn’t another elite playmaker or shot creator in the bunch. The identical factor occurred when Collins was out earlier within the season. The opposite 4 complement him properly, but none might fill his footwear.
Schlenk’s long-term plan might nonetheless work. For as dangerous as the Hawks have been this season, there’s still plenty of cause for hope. Collins and Hunter are 22. Young and Huerter are 21. And Reddish is simply 20.
The most important drawback in Atlanta this season hasn’t been the younger players. It has been everybody else. The Hawks have been dangerous last season, once they had a 29-53 report and a internet score of minus-5.5, but they still had high quality veterans like Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, and Dewayne Dedmon. These guys are all gone, and there’s just not much talent left of their supporting forged. Take a look at the listing of players that Atlanta head coach Lloyd Pierce has been pressured to depend on this season: Jabari Parker, DeAndre’ Bembry, Alex Len, Damian Jones, Vince Carter, Allen Crabbe, Bruno Fernando, and Brandon Goodwin. The Hawks might take an enormous step ahead subsequent season simply by getting competent play from the rest of their rotation.
Schlenk has to improve the roster, either on the commerce deadline or through the offseason. The query is whether he'll maintain making long-term selections or whether or not he will feel the strain to make win-now strikes, even when it comes at the expense of the group’s final ceiling. The one factor in his favor is that he received a contract extension last summer, which provides him some measure of job safety.
Probably the most notable participant whom the Hawks have been linked to in trade talks is Andre Drummond. Drummond, who continues to be only 26, is an elite rebounder who can be dynamic in the pick-and-roll with Younger. Atlanta has all of its future first-round draft picks as well as a first-rounder from the Nets, plus sufficient expiring contracts to match his wage in a commerce.
But trading for Drummond can be a course correction for Schlenk. What is the point of Collins on a group that has Drummond? Collins has improved sufficient as a shooter to make a pairing attainable, however it’s onerous to think about him turning into one of the best model of himself as a stretch 4. They're both rim-running huge men who would get in each other’s method, and Drummond won't even be a defensive upgrade at middle. Whereas he has an elite combination of measurement and athleticism, he has never been capable of make a distinction on that finish of the floor. The Pistons have all the time been higher defensively with out him.
Schlenk has the pliability to do virtually anything in free company and on the trade market. The Hawks have the cleanest cap sheet within the league, with solely $33.four million in salaries for next season. The only players beneath contract for 2021 are on rookie offers, though Collins is up for an extension.
Schlenk’s hardest name can be within the upcoming 2020 draft. The Hawks and Warriors are neck and neck in the race for lottery balls, however the NBA has evened the lottery odds since Hinkie’s days with the 76ers. Atlanta might easily wind up outdoors of the highest four in a draft that the majority teams don’t think about notably robust. And even if they get the no. 1 decide, there’s no obvious prize like Zion Williamson to pair with Trae.
The most effective obtainable prospect could be LaMelo Ball, a ball-dominant guard with significant defensive issues of his own. In that state of affairs, would Schlenk keep on with his rules and target the player who best fits together with his core, even when it means buying and selling down again? Or would he take LaMelo and pit him towards Younger? That’s what Hinkie would have finished. He took conventional facilities—Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, and Jahlil Okafor—in three consecutive drafts.
What Schlenk has completed in Atlanta is a natural reaction to what happened in Philadelphia. The 76ers at the moment are one of the crucial gifted teams within the league, but they seem to have hit a ceiling as a result of their greatest players don’t fit properly together. The Hawks, for all their flaws, will never have that drawback. Schlenk’s twist on the Course of might not work. Nevertheless it’s too early to give up on it.